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Production decline forecast
Forecast a well or field on exponential decline to its economic limit.
Operations & supply chainOil & gas
How it's worked out
- q(t) = q0 × e^(−Dt), D = −ln(1 − annual decline). Volume = (q0 − q) ÷ D × 365
- Exponential (Arps b = 0)
NoteMany wells follow hyperbolic decline early on; exponential is conservative for those.
Source: Arps (1945) decline curve analysis
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